金融稳定目标下非常规财政政策与宏观审慎政策的协同效应研究

The Coordination between Unconventional Fiscal Policy and Macroprudential Policy under the Goal of Financial Stability

如何有效促进经济稳中求进并严密防范各种风险,实现稳增长和防风险的长期均衡以助力构建新发展格局,是现阶段政策部门关注的重点所在。本文在一个包含多部门的动态随机一般均衡模型中纳入家庭住房抵押借款摩擦和银行贷款摩擦,深入探讨非常规财政政策和宏观审慎政策对房地产市场、金融市场以及宏观经济运行的调控效果,并分别考察了非常规财政政策、信贷类宏观审慎政策及其二者协同调控的福利效应。研究发现,非常规财政政策能够通过降低利差维护金融稳定,但会产生道德风险和效率成本问题;宏观审慎政策能够有效发挥“抑房价”并弱化住房贷款与非住房贷款之间挤出效应的作用,但对社会福利的影响呈“倒U”型特征。财政政策‒宏观审慎政策协同调控能够有效引导信贷资金流向实体部门并缓解企业“融资难、融资贵”困境,对于促进我国经济与金融的稳定、健康发展具有重要作用。

How to promote the economy’s stable progress to achieve a long-term balance free from potential risks to help build the new development pattern is the focus of policymakers at present.We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with multiple sectors,which incorporates household housing mortgage friction and bank loan friction,to investigate the performance of unconventional fiscal policy and macroprudential policy in regulating the housing market,financial market and the macro economy as well as the coordination benefits of the unconventional fiscal policy and credit macroprudential policy.We find that an unconventional fiscal policy works well to promote financial stability by reducing interest spread,but efficiency costs incurred have a negative effect on social welfare.A macroprudential policy can restrain the rapid growth of housing prices,and attenuate the crowd-out effect between residential and nonresidential loans,but its welfare effects turn out to be inverted U-shaped.Unconventional fiscal policy and macroprudential policy coordination performs well in leading credit capital to the real economy and mitigating the difficulty and high cost of enterprise financing,ensuring economic and financial stability and sound development.