资本账户开放促进经济增长的组合门槛条件分析——兼论中国局部开放策略

The Combination Threshold Effect of Capital Account Opening on Economic Growth——Conditional Analysis and the Partial Opening Strategy of China

资本账户开放在促进本国经济增长上存在门槛效应,这已成为共识。然而,现有研究只能估计单一变量的门槛值,忽略了多个变量存在组合门槛的可能性,带来分析的内在逻辑矛盾。有鉴于此,本文创新提出多变量组合门槛模型方法,利用1996-2015年114个国家(地区)的数据,考察资本账户开放促进经济增长的国际经验规律。研究发现:①初始人均GDP和贸易自由度两个变量构成一个显著且稳健的组合门槛关系;②组合门槛避免了传统单门槛模型的不足,很好地描述了各国资本账户开放现状。将国际经验应用于中国,再次论证了单变量门槛模型的不足,并得出结论:①根据组合门槛测算,中国整体上尚不具备资本账户完全开放的条件;②从区域上看,北京、上海、广东、江苏和浙江已经满足资本账户开放条件,天津存疑,其他地区尚未达到标准。本文给出了更加合理的资本账户开放判别标准,并有助于设计中国的局部开放策略。

It is agreed that there are threshold effects of capital account opening on promoting domestic economic growth.However,the existing research can only estimate the threshold value of a single variable,which not only ignores the possibility of the combination threshold of multiple variables,but also brings the inherent logical contradiction of analysis.In view of this,the paper first proposes the method of multivariate combination threshold model,and then uses the data of 114 countries(regions)in 1996-2015 to investigate the international experience of capital account opening to promote economic growth.It is found that the initial per capita GDP and the degree of trade liberalization constitute a significant and robust combination threshold relationship,which avoids the shortcomings of the traditional single threshold model and accurately describes the current situation of capital account opening in various countries.Then the international experience is applied to the analysis of China,and the shortcoming of single variable threshold model is confirmed.The conclusions are as follows:1)according to the calculation of the combination threshold,China as a whole does not have the conditions for the full opening of capital account;2)in view of regions,Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reached the conditions for the capital account opening,Tianjin is uncertain,and other regions have not yet met the conditions.This paper gives a more reasonable criterion of capital account opening,and helps design China’s partial opening strategy.