高铁开通的经济效应:“减排”与“增效”

Economic Effects of High-speed Rail: Emission Reduction and Efficiency Enhancement

文章将高铁开通视作准实验,基于2003-2017年我国281个地级及以上城市的面板数据,采用多期DID模型实证检验了高铁开通的"污染减排"与"提质增效"效应。研究结论显示:(1)高铁开通具有"既减排,又增效"的经济效应,在缓解可能存在的内生性问题及一系列稳健性检验后结论仍然成立。(2)分地区的估计结果显示,高铁开通的"减排"效应在中、西部地区得到验证,西部地区更为明显;而高铁开通的"增效"效应在三大区域皆得到验证,且"增效"效应从东部→中部→西部依次递减。(3)分城市规模的估计结果显示:高铁开通的经济效应仅在小城市中未能得到验证,在中等及以上城市中皆得到有效验证,且伴随城市规模的扩大,高铁开通的经济效应愈加明显。(4)机制研究表明:外商投资是高铁开通"减排"与"增效"效应的有效传导途径;技术进步仅是高铁开通"减排"效应的有效传导途径;而人口集聚与人力资本仅是高铁开通"增效"效应的有效传导途径。

The article treats opening high-speed rail as a quasi-experiment,based on the panel data of 281 cities and municipalities in China from 2003 to 2017,and uses time-varying DID model to empirically test the emission reduction and efficiency enhancement effects of high-speed rail.The conclusion of the study shows that:1)the opening of the high-speed rail has the economic effects of both emission reduction and efficiency enhancement.After alleviating possible endogenous problems and a series of robustness tests,the conclusion is still true.2)The estimated results by region show that the emission reduction effect of high-speed rail operation has been verified in the central and western regions of China,and the western region is more obvious.The efficiency enhancement effect has been verified in all three major regions,and the eastern region is the most obvious,the central region the second,and the western region the lowest.3)Estimated results by city size show that the economic effects of opening high-speed rail have not been verified only in small cities,but verified in medium and above cities.And with the expansion of the city scale,the economic effect of high-speed rail has become more and more obvious.4)The mechanism study shows that foreign direct investment is an effective transmission route of emission reduction and efficiency enhancement effect of high-speed railway.Technological progress is only an effective transmission route for the emission reduction effect,while population concentration and human capital are only the effective transmission route for the efficiency enhancement effect.