环境规制与中国经济高质量发展的非线性关系检验

A Test on the Non-linear Relationship Between Environmental Regulation and China’s High-quality Economic Development

文章基于2004—2018年中国30个省份的面板数据,以"五大发展理念"为指导构建经济高质量发展的测度指标体系,考虑到经济高质量发展的空间相关性,采用空间杜宾模型和半参数空间滞后模型对环境规制与经济高质量发展的非线性关系进行实证检验,结果显示:经济高质量发展水平存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,高质量发展集聚区主要集中在东部沿海省份;环境规制与经济高质量发展存在"M"型的非线性关系,这与其他学者得出的"倒U"型或者"U"型曲线关系的结论不同,但是"M"型的非线性关系也符合学者们关于环境规制对经济增长质量的影响会随着经济发展阶段的不同而变化的猜想;空间杜宾模型验证了学者们关于"倒U"型非线性关系的假设,半参数空间滞后模型的拟合优度高于空间杜宾模型,学者们得出的"倒U"型或者"U"型曲线很可能是"M"型曲线的一部分,半参数空间滞后模型的实证结果更加有效、准确和科学。

Based on the panel data of China’s 30 provinces from 2004 to 2018,this paper constructs a measurement index system for high-quality economic development under the guidance of"Five Concepts for Development".Considering the spatial correlation of high-quality economic development,the paper uses the spatial Durbin model and semi-parametric spatial lag model to empirically test the non-linear relationship between environmental regulation and high-quality economic development.The results show that there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect on the high-quality economic development level,and the high-quality development agglomeration areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal provinces,that there is an M-shaped non-linear relationship between environmental regulation and high-quality economic development,which is different from other scholars’conclusion of inverted U-shaped or U-shaped curve relationship,but the M-shaped nonlinear relationship also conforms to scholars’conjecture that the impact of environmental regulation on the economic growth quality changes with different stages of economic development,that the spatial Durbin model verifies the hypothesis of the inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship;the goodness of fit of the semi-parametric spatial lag model is better than that of the spatial Durbin model;the inverted U or U-shaped curve obtained by scholars is likely to be a part of the M-shaped curve;the empirical results of the semi-parametric spatial lag model are more effective,accurate and scientific.