我国就业和失业调查统计差异及其国际比较

Statistical Differences and International Comparision Between Employment and Unemployment Surveys in China

有效的统计数据和测量标准是开展我国就业和失业研究的前提条件,也是当前和今后政府制定稳就业和实现失业调控政策的重要依据。文章比较了我国目前影响较大的几个主要数据库对于就业和失业的调查和测量差异,并分析了其对就业率和失业率估计结果的影响。研究表明,各类数据库有关就业失业调查和测量均有改进空间。测量标准、数据规模、问卷设计、抽样方案等都会对估计结果产生影响。还讨论了国内就业和失业测量标准与国际标准的差别,发现中国现有的就业和失业调查与测量口径偏松,对于就业、失业和非经济活动人口三者边界地带人员的考虑不够充分,划分不明确,就业率和失业率存在一定高估。

Effective statistical data and measurement standards are the preconditions for the employment and unemployment study in China, and are also the important basis for the government to formulate stable employment policies and implement unemployment control policies at present and in the future. This paper compares the survey and measurement differences of employment and unemployment between several major influential databases in China, and analyzes their impact on the estimation results of employment rate and unemployment rate. The results show that there is room for improvement in the survey and measurement of employment and unemployment in all kinds of databases, and that measurement standards, data size, questionnaire design and sampling scheme all have an impact on the estimation results. The paper also discusses the differences between domestic employment and unemployment measurement standards and international standards, discovering that China’s existing employment and unemployment survey and measurement caliber are loose, and have insufficient consideration on people along the border of the employed, unemployed and economically inactive population, with the division unclear, and the employment rate and unemployment rate somewhat overestimated.