高政府质量降低武装冲突了吗——基于跨国面板数据的分析

Has High Government Quality Reduced Armed Conflicts?The Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis

政府质量(quality of government)是对一个国家政府治理水平和治理能力的测量。政府质量对于武装冲突(armed conflict)的产生、发展和解决有着重要的意义,然而到目前为止,这方面研究仍然缺乏经验证据。基于瑞典哥德堡大学政府质量数据库(the quality of government dataset)中的跨国面板数据,使用学校性别比和政府预算赤字/盈余作为工具变量(instrumental variables),对政府质量水平与武装冲突数量的关系进行了实证检验和因果推断。发现高质量的政府降低严重冲突发生的概率,而低质量的政府往往带来内战和动乱。因此,要解决当前全球范围内的各种冲突和战乱,必须推动政府治理水平与治理能力的提升。

Quality of Government(QoG)is a measure of one country’s level and ability of governance.The quality of government is important for the emergence,development,and resolution of armed conflicts,yet empirical evidence is still lacking.The relationship between the level of government quality and the number of armed conflicts is empirically tested and causally inferred based on the cross-country panel data from The Quality of Government Dataset at the University of Gothenburg,Sweden and instrumental variables:gender ratio in school and government budget deficit/surplus.High-quality governments are found to reduce the probability of serious conflicts,while low-quality governments tend to bring about civil wars and unrest.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the governance quality and government capacity in order to resolve various conflicts and wars in the current global context.