中海油与国内外典型石油公司勘探关键指标对标分析

Benchmarking of Key Exploration Indicators between CNOOC and Typical Oil Companies at Home and Abroad

我国海域势必成为国内最重要的油气储量产量增长领域,因此中海油的勘探业务指标备受关注。选取超大型国际石油公司、一体化国家石油公司、独立石油公司三大类14家对标公司,选取勘探投资、探井成功率、勘探新增储量、桶油发现成本、储量替代率、储采比6个关键勘探指标作为本次对标分析的对象。分析表明,中海油勘探投资比例在对标公司中相对较高且波动最小,在对标独立石油公司中自主勘探强度最强,且在所有对标公司中勘探稳定性最高;但近年来探井成功率处于相对较低的水平;近10年新增储量规模在对标独立石油公司中仅次于康菲,超过部分一体化国家石油公司;桶油发现成本在对标公司中表现相对较好,表明中海油具有较高的勘探市场竞争力;储量替代率近些年出现较大幅度波动,但整体上保持了较高水平;储采比相对稳定,在独立石油公司中仅次于康菲。针对中海油勘探业务的优势与不足,建议继续保持较高的自主勘探强度,不断增加勘探投资规模,从而促进勘探新增储量持续快速增加;勘探商业成功率相对较低要引起足够的重视,需加强基础地质研究工作,加深对地质条件和油藏特征的认识,持续攻关勘探关键技术;加大在勘探投资组合优化方面的工作,使勘探桶油发现成本保持在合理的增长区间;通过自主勘探结合并购努力提高公司储量产量规模,保障储量替代率、储采比处在合理区间。

Sea areas in China would be the most important increase fields for oil and gas reserves and production,so exploration indicators of CNOOC are paid more attention.Fourteen benchmarking companies are se-lected from three types of large-scale international oil companies,integrated national oil companies and independent oil companies.Six key exploration indicators are selected as the object of the benchmarking,which include exploration investment,success rate of exploration wells,newly found reserves,oil discovery cost per barrel,reserves replacement rate and reserve-production ratio.The analysis shows that CNOOC has relatively high proportion of exploration investment with little change among the benchmarking companies.It has absolutely in-dependent exploration among benchmarking independent oil companies with the highest stability of the explo-ration among all benchmarking companies.But its success rate of the exploration wells is relatively low in re-cent years.For the past 10 years,its newly found reserve scale is lower than ConocoPhillips only among the benchmarking independent oil companies,and higher than part of the integrated national oil companies.Its oil discovery cost per barrel is relative low among the benchmarking companies,which presents high exploration market competitiveness.Its reserves replacement rate is at high level in general though it is not stable in re-cent years.Its reserve-production ratio has less stability than ConocoPhillips among the independent oil com-panies.According to the advantage and disadvantage of the exploration in CNOOC,higher independent exploration degree should be remained and the exploration investment scale should be increased continuously to quickly and continuously increase the newly found reserves by the exploration.Relatively low industrial success rate of the exploration should be paid enough attention.Basic geological research should be emphasized and key exploration technologies should be researched based on the deepening understanding on geological condi-tions and reservoir characteristics.The exploration investment should be optimized to make the oil discovery cost per barrel remain at rational increase range.The independent exploration should be combined with acqui-sition to increase reserve and production scale of the companies with rational range of reserve replacement rate and reserve-production ratio.