潍坊市发热伴血小板减少综合征病例空间点格局分析

Spatial pattern of cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Weifang City

目的探索潍坊市发热伴血小板减少综合征(severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome,SFTS)病例空间格局,为疾病防控提供依据。方法对SFTS的流行特征进行描述,利用平均最近邻指数、多距离空间聚类分析、核密度等方法对SFTS病例进行空间点格局识别,发现SFTS病例的空间分布规律。结果2011—2021年潍坊市SFTS共报告387例,年均发病率0.38/10万,5—8月高发,单发病高峰,青州市、临朐县、安丘市为主要高发地区,60岁以前发病率逐渐升高,之后未见下降。ANNI=0.648,Z=-12.640(P<0.01);Ripley’s K函数L(d)在48.00 km之前大于期望值;存在临朐县及青州市交界处、奎文区与潍城区交界处、青州市王府街道、安丘市辉渠镇4个高密度区域。结论潍坊市SFTS病例点格局存在明显空间聚集性,在100.00 km范围内聚集程度达到最大,空间格局与山区、丘陵分布基本一致。点数据空间格局分析较自相关分析有一定优势。

Objective To explore the spatial pattern of cases of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Weifang City,and to provide a basis for SFTS prevention and control.Methods The epidemic characteristics of SFTS were described.The average nearest neighbor index(ANNI),multi-distance spatial cluster analysis and Kernel density estimation were used to identify the spatial pattern of SFTS cases,and discover the spatial distribution rule of the cases.Results A total of 387 cases of SFTS were reported in Weifang City from 2011 to 2021,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.38/100,000.There was a high incidence in May-August,with a single peak.Qingzhou City,Linqu County and Anqiu City were the main regions with high incidence.ANNI and Z were 0.648 and-12.640 respectively(P<0.01).Ripley’s K function L(d)was greater than the expected value until 48.00 km.There were four high density regions found in the junction of Linqu County and Qingzhou City,the junction of Kuiwen District and Weicheng District,Wangfu Street of Qingzhou City and Huiqu Town of Anqiu City.Conclusion The pattern of SFTS cases in Weifang City shows obvious spatial clustering,and the clustering degree reaches the maximum within 100.00 km.The spatial pattern is consistent with the distribution of mountains and hills.Spatial pattern analysis of point data has some advantages over autocorrelation analysis.