老龄事业高质量发展测度评价及动态演进研究——基于我国31个省份相关数据

Research on the Evaluation and Dynamic Evolution of High-quality Development of Aging Undertakings——Based on the Data from 31 Provinces in China

人口老龄化是社会发展的重要趋势,是人类文明进步的重要体现,也是我国今后较长一个时期的基本国情。在界定老龄事业内涵的基础上,利用我国31个省份相关数据,构建了包括生活保障、社会保障、养老服务和医疗服务四大子系统在内的老龄事业高质量发展评价指标体系。运用熵权TOPSIS法测度2010~2020年相应省份老龄事业高质量发展综合指数,综合运用耦合协调度模型、核密度估计法分析老龄事业高质量发展整体状况、地区差异及动态演进过程。发现样本省份老龄事业高质量发展水平稳步提升,但仍存在老龄事业发展不平衡现象。提出系统谋划老龄事业、协同推进区域老龄事业和协调发展老龄事业与老龄产业等对策建议。

Population aging is an important trend of social development,an important reflection of the progress of human civilization,and also a basic condition of our country for a long period in the future.On the basis of defining the connotation of the cause of aging,using the relevant data of 31 provinces in China,a high-quality development evaluation index system of the cause of aging is constructed,including four subsystems of life security,social security,old-age service and medical service.The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to measure the comprehensive index of high-quality development of aging undertakings in corresponding provinces from 2010 to 2020.The coupling coordination degree model and kernel density estimation method are comprehensively used to analyze the overall situation,regional differences and dynamic evolution process of high-quality development of aging cause.It is found that the high-quality development level of the aging cause in the sample provinces has been steadily improved,but there is still an imbalance in the development of the aging cause.This paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions,such as systematic planning of old-age undertakings,coordinated promotion of regional old-age undertakings,coordination of old-age undertakings and old-age industries.