农作物收入保险差异化费率厘定研究——以甘肃省十个地区春小麦产量为例

Research on Differential Premium Determination of Crop Income Insurance Based on Copula Method——Take Spring Wheat in 10 Cities of Gansu Province as An Example

科学合理的费率厘定是农业收入保险规避逆向选择、健康持续发展的关键。本研究选取甘肃省1999年至2019年10个地市州春小麦的单产数据以及价格数据,通过参数法确定春小麦的单产和价格的边缘分布,采取Copula函数建立单产与价格的联合分布,依照蒙特卡罗仿真获得期望收入数据,最终计算出在70%~100%保障水平下甘肃省十个地区春小麦收入保险的费率。结果显示不同区域之间的费率呈现出很大的差异性。提出健全多部门数据共享平台、完善农产品市场化交易机制、推进分区域费率厘定、实行多样化保费补贴政策和建立立体化风险分散体系等推进农作物收入保险快速健康发展的建议措施。

Scientific and reasonable premium determination is the key to avoid adverse selection and maintain sustainable development of agricultural insurance.Based on yield data and price data of spring wheat in 10 regions in Gansu Province from 1999 to 2019,this paper determines the marginal distribution of the yield and price of wheat with the parameteric method,establishes the joint distribution of yield and price with Copula method,and obtains the expected income by Monte Carlo simulation.Finally this paper calculate premium of spring wheat income insurance in 10 regions of Gansu province under the coverage level ranaged from 70%to 100%.The results show that premium vary greatly in different regions.On this basis this paper puts forward the folloing suggestions:improving the multi-department data sharing platform,perfecting the market-based agricultural products trading mechanism,promoting process of regional premium determination,implementing diversified premium subsidy policies,and perfecting the risk diversification system.