能源系统低碳转型中的气象风险

Meteorological risks in the low carbon transitions of the energy system

能源转型的主要内容是快速形成以可再生能源为主体的新型低碳能源系统,由于可再生能源的波动性特征,加上极端气象事件频发的影响,气象风险已经成为能源转型的关键问题。本文立足我国实际情况,从气象风险角度重新审视我国的低碳能源系统转型路径,并对多种碳中和转型方案进行分析,提出转型过程中提升应对气象风险能力的举措并给出相应的政策建议。研究认为,为了确保能源体系在安全可靠的前提下稳步完成碳中和转型过程,需要在提高气象预测能力、重视化石能源作用、建设智能传输体系、促进能源多样化发展、用好价格机制5个方面采取相应措施,有效防范潜在的气象风险。

The main part of energy transition is to form a new low-carbon energy system with renewable energy playing a leading role.However,due to the variability of renewable energy together with the frequent occurrence of extreme weather,meteorological risks are becoming a key problem during energy transitions.Based on the situation of China,the pathways of China’s low carbon energy transitions are rethought and the transitional schemes toward carbon neutrality are analyzed in this study from the angle of meteorological risks.Measures and policy recommendations for improving risk-resistant ability for meteorological risks are proposed.This study suggests that to ensure the carbon-neutral transitions of the energy system in a safe and reliable way and effectively prevent meteorological risks,the following five measures should be adopted:improving meteorological forecast ability,attaching greater importance to fossil fuels,establishing an intelligent energy transmission system,promoting diversified energy development and making full use of price mechanisms.