石化项目投资决策中的国内市场需求预测方法

Domestic Market Demand Forecast Method in Petrochemical Project Investment Decision

论述了在国内石化项目投资决策中国内市场需求预测的各种实用方法。首先对预测的计算基础年均增长率进行了阐述并给出了定义及计算公式,随后对细分市场、弹性因子、历史表观消费量曲线拟合预测、人均消费量预测、专家预测等未来需求量预测方法进行了详细论述,并说明了适用条件;同时,提出要引入低值、中值和高值的概念,综合利用各种预测方法,以期提高预测准确度,为石化投资项目决策提供依据。

Various practical methods for forecasting domestic market demand in decision-making in domestic petrochemical projects investment were discussed.First,the calculation basis of the forecast is explained and the definition and formula are given.Then,the market segmentation and elasticity coefficient,historical apparent consumption curve fitting forecasting method,per capita consumption forecasting,expert forecasting method and other future demand forecasting methods are discussed in detail,and the applicable conditions are explained.At the same time,it is proposed to introduce the concepts of low,median and high value and comprehensive utilization of various forecasting methods are expected to improve the accuracy of forecasts and provide a basis for decision-making on petrochemical investment projects.