张鼓峰事件与国民政府国际战略的调整

The Changkufeng Incident and the Adjustment of the National Government’s International Strategy

张鼓峰事件爆发初始,国民政府高层大多认为日苏冲突难以演变为全面战争,但蒋介石判断苏联对日政策转取攻势,预测日苏行将开战。日苏冲突扩大后,国民政府在不牵扯内政的前提下,采取积极的联苏政策,并在继续固守武汉的同时,筹划配合日苏战争的局部反攻。日苏停战后,国民政府试图缔结不具强制力的中苏互助协定,却屡遭拒绝。苏联为分散日本军力,对国民政府施压,推动其反攻。待至日本提出建设“东亚新秩序”,美英逐渐转向援华制日政策,中方开始重点寻求美英支持,苏联在国民政府国际战略格局中的地位渐趋下降。国民政府谋求日苏爆发战争以改善抗战局势,非但难以达其初衷,反而干扰自身外交、军事决策,更引发苏联对华猜忌与反制,是其国际战略不可忽视的缺陷。

At the outbreak of the Changkufeng Incident,most people at the highest level of the Nationalist Government believed that the Soviet-Japanese conflict would hardly evolve into a full-scale war,but Chiang Kai-shek judged that the Soviet Union’s policy towards Japan had turned offensive and predicted that Japan and the Soviet Union would go to war.After the intensification of the Soviet-Japanese conflict,the Nationalist Government,adopted an active policy of making an alliance with the Soviet Union on the premise of not implicating internal affairs,and while continuing to hold on to Wuhan,planned to launch a local counterattack.After the Soviet-Japanese armistice,the Nationalist Government attempted to conclude a non-coercive Sino-Soviet mutual assistance agreement,but it was repeatedly rejected.The Soviet Union pressured the Nationalist Government for a counter-attack against Japan in order to disperse Japanese forces.When Japan put forward a“New Order for East Asia”,the US and the UK gradually shifted to a policy of supporting China and confronting Japan.The Chinese government began to focus on seeking support from the US and the UK,and the Soviet Union’s position in the Nationalist Government’s international strategic landscape gradually declined.The Kuomintang’s desire for a war between Japan and the Soviet Union was not only difficult to achieve,but also interfered with its own diplomatic and military decisions.What’s more,it led to Soviet suspicion and countermeasures against China,which was a drawback of its international strategy that could not be ignored.