低碳试点政策对乡村产业发展的影响——基于“两山”理论的视角

Impact of Low-Carbon Pilot Policy on Rural Industrial Development——Based on the Perspective of“Two Mountains”Theory

低碳试点政策作为我国一项促进实现“双碳”目标的重要政策,旨在控制试点地区总体温室气体排放量峰值、降低产业的碳排放和城乡低碳发展。然而,低碳试点政策对试点区域的农村地区产业发展会产生怎样的政策效果是影响低碳试点政策效果的重要因素。因此,本文以习近平总书记提出的“两山”理论作为理论出发点,采用多期双重差分方法并运用我国1999—2019年的1932个县级面板数据,围绕低碳试点政策与乡村产业发展的因果关系进行研究。结果表明,低碳试点政策对试点区域的乡村产业发展呈现出较为显著的正向推动作用,但受地理气候、经济地理、城镇化水平等因素的影响,该政策对不同试点区域的乡村产业发展会产生不同的政策效果。

The low-carbon pilot policy,as an important policy to promote the realization of the“dual carbon”goal in China,aims to control the peak of the overall greenhouse gas emissions in the pilot area,reduce the carbon emissions of the industry and realize the low-carbon development in urban and rural areas.Most remarkably,the effect of the low-carbon pilot policy on the industrial development of rural areas in the pilot area is crucial to the implementation of the low-carbon pilot policy.Overall,the research was guided by the“Two Mountains”theory proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping.The paper adopted the multi-period double differences method,and used 1932 county-level panel data from 1999 to 2019 in China to analyze the causal relationship between the low-carbon pilot policy and rural industrial development.The results showed that,the low-carbon pilot policy had a relatively significant positive effect on the development of rural industries in the pilot area,the effect of which was influenced by geography,climate,economy and the level of urbanization.