为“一带一路”倡议“量体裁衣”——基于沿线国家公共产品供给效率的研究

"Tailored"for"the Belt and Road"Initiative——Research on the Efficiency of Public Goods Supply in the Countries along the Route

以"一带一路"沿线44个国家为样本,实证考察了各国公共产品供给效率的动态变化趋势,并研究了当地政府治理行为与公共产品供给之间的门槛效应。研究发现:各国的DEA供给效率值虽然在2010年之后持续增长,但纯技术效率却在2011年跃至0.9之后增势不足,甚至略有下滑;制造业增加值、商业银行分支机构与私营部门的国内信贷额在两道门槛之间均有显著的促进作用;国家间跨越门槛的情况显示,存在正向门槛效应的国家与地区仅占10%左右。

Taking 44 countries along“the Belt and Road”as a sample,this paper empirically examined the dynamic changing trend of the supply efficiency of public goods in related countries,and studied the threshold effect between local government behavior and the supply of public goods.The study found that,although the DEA supply efficiency of those countries has continued to increase after 2010,pure technical efficiency has not increased after jumping to 0.9 in 2011,even slightly declined.Furthermore,the added value of manufacturing industry,the branches of commercial bank and the credits amount of domestic private sectors all had a significant promoting effect between the two thresholds.The study of the countries crossing the thresholds showed that,only about 10%of countries and regions had a positive threshold effect.