工业机器人与农民工就业:替代抑或促进

Industrial Robots and Migrant Workers’ Employment:Substitution or Promotion

基于2010—2017年中国流动人口动态监测数据,考察工业机器人对农民工就业的影响。研究发现:工业机器人显著减少了农民工工业就业;产业转移是工业机器人影响农民工工业就业的中间机制,表现为抑制传统服务业转移、促进现代服务业转移。异质性分析表明,工业机器人减少了男性、新生代和第一代、初中、常规操作性和私营企业农民工工业就业总量,增加了非常规操作性、集体企业农民工工业就业总量;工业机器人降低了男性、第一代、初中和私营企业农民工工业就业比重,提高了女性、初中以外、常规操作性、非常规性和个体工商户农民工工业就业比重。

This paper had analyzed the impact of industrial robots on migrant workers’employment based on China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data from 2010 to 2017.The results showed that industrial robots had significantly inhibited migrant workers’industrial employment,where industrial transfer had exerted a mediating effect mainly through the channels of inhibiting the transfer of traditional service industry and promoting the transfer of modern service industry.The heterogeneity analysis showed that,industrial robots had remarkably decreased the total quantities of migrant workers’secondary industry employment of the male,new and first generation,junior high school,conventional operation and private enterprises,while industrial robots had increased the employment of the non-conventional operation and collective enterprises.Moreover,they had significantly reduced the proportion of migrant workers’secondary industry employment of the male,first generation,junior high school and private enterprises,while it had enhanced the employment proportion of the female,non-junior high school,routine operation,unconventional and individual businesses.