中国三孩政策下的超低生育率与人口发展理念迷思

The Ultra-Low Fertility and Population Development Ideology Myth under China's Three-Child Policy

中国超低生育率研究的当务之急并不是简单地拿来国外各类生育支持政策药方,而是要引入“历史性”视角,基于学术史角度去全面解构超低生育率下的生育限制思维及人口发展理念体系,从而为应对超低生育率和人口过快老龄化创造思想前提。生育限制思维在当前超低生育率时代依然存在,其理论基石是马尔萨斯主义、新马尔萨斯主义与“适度人口论”的杂糅。在超低生育率形势下,生育限制思维会明显弱化对过低生育率和人口过快老龄化问题严峻性的认识,而建立在生育限制框架下的生育支持政策不仅收效甚微,并且存在出现政策方向和策略双重失误的风险。本研究还对与生育限制思维紧密相关的人口发展“工程视角”和人口“分母效应”进行了批判性分析。

One of the most urgent tasks of China's ultra-low fertility research is not to simply bring various foreign birth support policies,but to introduce a historical perspective to comprehensively deconstruct the birth restriction thinking and the related population development ideology myth based on academic history,thus creating the ideological premise for dealing with the ultra-low fertility and rapid population aging in China.The birth restriction thinking still exists in the current era of ultra-low fertility,and its theoretical cornerstone is a mix of Malthusianism,Neo-Malthusianism and the optimum population theory.In the context of ultra-low fertility of China,the birth restriction thinking will obviously weaken the understanding of the seriousness of the problems of too low fertility and too fast population aging,and the birth support policies established within the framework of birth restriction will not only have lttle effect,but also there exist high risks of double failures of policy direction and strategy.This study also provides a critical analysis of population development engineering perspectives and the population denominator effects,both of which are closely related to birth restriction thinking.