基于投入产出模型的黄河“几字弯”城市群用水特征与节水关键区域

Characteristics of water use in the “Jiziwan” urban agglomeration of the Yellow River Watershed and key areas of water-saving based on input and output model

黄河“几字弯”区域是黄河流域的关键节点,是实现中西部崛起的关键区域,也是黄河流域生态环境保护和高质量发展的战略支撑。然而,缺水已经成为制约“几字弯”地区经济社会发展的最大瓶颈。利用投入产出模型,从生产侧的实体水和消费侧的虚拟水出发,分析“几字弯”地区18个城市的用水量、结构变化和流入流出特征,结合生产与消费两个方面提出了“几字弯”地区城市群节水的重点区域及产业供水调整的建议。(1)“几字弯”区域虚拟水用量由2007年648.5亿m^(3)增加至2017年778.4亿m^(3),增加了20%,但实体水用量仅变化了-0.04%,各城市虚拟水增长类型差异较大。(2)18个城市实体水占虚拟水的比例由2007年41.7%下降至2017年34.8%,水资源利用效率逐步提高;实体水的用水大户是农业,虚拟水的用水大户是制造业和农业,服务业实体水和虚拟水用量剧增。(3)区域18个城市虚拟水流入量增长明显,但整体仍呈现出虚拟水净流出的特征。制造业虚拟水流出量均在188.9亿m^(3)以上,流入量均不足108.9亿m^(3),制造业在区域经济中具有一定的比较优势。(4)巴彦淖尔、中卫、吴忠、石嘴山和白银市是“几字弯”18个城市中重点节水的对象。在这些城市中,农业用水比重较大,产出较低,农业是今后节水的重点。鄂尔多斯、包头、石嘴山、乌海制造业具有比较优势,巴彦淖尔的农业用水系数远远高于18个城市的平均值,需要控制其农业用水。对于鄂尔多斯、包头、石嘴山、乌海、巴彦淖尔5市,需要向当地的优势产业制造业和服务业进行供水倾斜、提高比较优势。

“Jiziwan”section is a key node in the Yellow River Watershed,where is a key area for realizing the rise of the central and western regions,and it is also a strategic functional region for the ecological environment protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Watershed.However,water shortage in this region has become the biggest bottleneck restricting the economic and social development.From the physical water on the production side and the virtual water on the consumption side,we used the input-output model to analyze the water consumption,structural changes,inflow and outflow characteristics of 18 cities in the“Jiziwan”area,in addition,we put forward the key points of water saving and the suggestions for industrial water supply adjustment in this region.(1)The virtual water consumption in the“Jiziwan”area increased from 64.9 billion m^(3)in 2007 to 77.8 billion m^(3)in 2017 with increase of 20%,but the entity water consumption only changed-0.04%,and the growth types of virtual water in different cities were quite different.(2)The ratio of entity/virtual water in 18 cities dropped from 41.7%in 2007 to 34.8%in 2017,and water resource utilization efficiency has gradually improved;the industry with the highest water consumption was agriculture,and the higher virtual water industry were manufacture and agriculture.The consumption of entity water and virtual water in the service industry has increased sharply in this period.(3)The inflow of virtual water in 18 cities has increased significantly,but the virtual water outflowing was still mainly in this area.The outflow of virtual water from the manufacturing industry in 18 cities was above 18.9 billion m^(3),and the inflow was less than 10.9 billion m^(3).It showed that the manufacturing industry had higher comparative advantages in“Jiziwan”area.(4)Bayannur,Zhongwei,Wuzhong,Shizuishan and Baiyin in“Jiziwan”region were the key cities for water-saving.In these cities,the agriculture water consumption was larger and the output is lower than other industries,and the agriculture was the focus of water-saving.The manufacturing industries of Ordos,Baotou,Shizuishan and Wuhai had the comparative advantages to others.The agricultural water use coefficient of Bayannur was much higher than the average value of 18 cities,and agricultural water use needs to be strictly controlled.It is necessary for Ordos,Baotou,Shizuishan,Wuhai and Bayannur to tilt the water supply to the local advantageous industries,manufacturing and service industries,and improve their comparative advantages.