相成还是相克?旅游经济效率与韧性的互动关系研究

Mutually reinforcing or mutually inhibiting?Research on the interactive relationship between efficiency and resilience of tourism economy

旅游经济效率与韧性的适配,是提升旅游业的抗风险能力和运营效能,实现高质量发展的核心议题。文章采用超效率EBM模型、遗传算法投影寻踪模型分别测度2006—2021年中国省域旅游经济效率与韧性水平,借助面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型、随机森林回归模型揭示二者的互动关系。结果表明:(1)中国旅游经济效率和韧性水平均呈现上升趋势,但表现出不同的波动特征,效率波动较大,韧性相对平稳。两者空间演变特征差异明显,高效率地区分布呈现“随机分布-西南聚集”特征,高韧性地区分布呈现“点线分布-东部沿海聚集”特征。(2)旅游经济效率和韧性之间存在显著双向因果关系,且均具有自我增强机制。效率对韧性的重要性比韧性对效率的重要性更大,效率的提升对韧性具有更显著的长期促进作用。(3)市场规模、信息化水平对旅游经济效与韧性的影响程度最高。(4)随机森林回归模型揭示了旅游经济效益与韧性之间“平稳-促进-收敛”的非线性关系特征。研究结论丰富了对旅游经济效率与韧性关系内涵的理解,也可为提升旅游业抗风险能力、促进旅游业高质量发展提供决策参考。

The adaptiveness of tourism economic efficiency and resilience is the core issue to improve the anti-risk ability and operational efficiency of the tourism industry and achieve high-quality development.In this paper,the super-efficiency EBM model and the genetic algorithm projection tracing model were used to measure the tourism economic efficiency and resilience of China’s provincial-level regions from 2006 to 2021,respectively,and the interaction between the two was revealed by the Panel Vector Auto-Regressive(PVAR)model and the random forest regression model.The results show that:(1)the efficiency and resilience of China’s tourism economy show an upward trend,but with different fluctuation characteristics,namely large fluctuations in efficiency and relatively stable resilience.There are obvious differences in the spatial evolution characteristics of the two regions,with the distribution of high-efficiency areas showing the pattern of“random distribution-southwest aggregation”,and the distribution of high-resilience areas showing the characteristics of“point-line distribution-eastern coastal agglomeration”.(2)There is a significant two-way causal relationship between tourism economic efficiency and resilience,and both have a self-reinforcing mechanism.The importance of efficiency to resilience is greater than that of resilience to efficiency,and the improvement of efficiency has a more significant long-term promotion effect on resilience.(3)The market size and informatization level have the greatest impact on the efficiency and resilience of tourism economy.(4)The random forest regression model reveals the nonlinear relationship between tourism economic efficiency and resilience with“smooth-promotion-convergence”pattern.The findings of this study enrich the understanding of the relationship between tourism economic efficiency and resilience,and also provide a decision-making reference for improving the antirisk ability of the tourism industry and promoting the high-quality development of the tourism industry.