中国“十四五”天然气消费趋势分析

Analysis of natural gas consumption trend in China during the 14^(th) Five-Year Plan

深入研究中国天然气消费趋势有利于政府部门、企业科学决策,持续推动天然气行业发展。通过区位商法对"十四五"至2035年中国天然气消费量进行预测,并结合国家、地方政策等对预测初值进一步调整。预测结果显示,2025年中国天然气消费量将达到4200×108m3,比2020年净增1000×108m3,2035年可达6000×108m3以上。分省份来看,"十四五"期间江苏省、四川省、广东省、北京市和山东省天然气消费总量最大;分区域来看,环渤海、长三角及珠三角继续引领中国天然气高端市场;从消费结构看,城镇燃气中的居民消费还有较大空间,尤其是南方居民采暖增长较快,"煤改气"仍然是工业燃料用能转换的方向,气价因素和装备成本下降利好天然气发电。天然气在"碳达峰、碳中和"的目标下将持续承担能源转型的桥梁作用。

Studying China’s natural gas consumption trend is conducive to scientific decision-making of government departments and enterprises,and will continue to promote the development of the natural gas industry.Based on the location quotient theory,this paper forecasts the natural gas consumption in China from the 14 th Five-Year Plan period to 2035,and the preliminary forecast value is further adjusted in combination with national and local policies.It is predicted that China’s natural gas consumption will reach 420 billion cubic meters in 2025,a net increase of 100 billion cubic meters over 2020,and reach more than 600 billion cubic meters in 2035.In terms of provinces and cities,the total amount of natural gas consumption in Jiangsu,Sichuan,Guangdong,Beijing and Shandong will be the top 5 during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.Geographically,Circum-Bohai-Sea,Yangtze Delta and Zhujiang Delta continue to lead the high-end natural gas market in China.In terms of consumption structure,there is still a large space for urban gas consumption,especially in southern China,where heating is growing rapidly."The project to replace coal with gas"is still the direction of energy conversion of industrial fuel,the decrease of gas price and equipment costs is favorable for natural gas power generation.Natural gas will continue to play the role of"bridge"in the energy transition under the goal of"carbon emissions peaked and carbon neutral".