用情景规划应对后疫情时代的能源大变局

Scenario planning to great changes of energy industry in post-COVID-19 epidemic era

新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济和能源市场造成了巨大的冲击。面对后疫情时代剧烈变化的国际形势和能源供需关系,国际能源咨询研究机构纷纷引入"情景规划"方法对未来经济发展、能源供需、原油价格进行情景分析和预判。在综合考虑疫情发展轨迹、政府应对措施、能源转型进程、全球化程度以及后疫情时代经济复苏前景等不确定因素的基础上,提出3种未来能源大变局的参考情景,以助于决策者提早预防风险,科学制定战略规划方案。在"十四五"规划编制攻坚之际,面对外部环境的风云变幻,中国能源企业亟需深化情景规划工具的应用,培养专业化的情景规划研究团队,提升应对危机和抗风险的能力。

The COVID-19 epidemic has had a huge impact on the world economy and energy markets.Faced with violent changes in the international situation and the relationship between energy supply and demand in the post-COVID-19 epidemic era,the international energy consulting and research institutions have successively introduced scenario planning method to analyze and predict the future economic development,energy supply and demand,and crude oil price.Three reference scenarios for future energy changes were proposed to help decision makers to prevent risks earlier and make strategic plans scientifically,based on a comprehensive consideration of the uncertain factors such as the development track of COVID-19 epidemic,the government’s response measures,the process of energy transformation,the globalization degree and the prospect of economic recovery in the postCOVID-19 epidemic era.During the 14 th Five-Year Plan period,Chinese energy enterprises urgently need to deepen the application of scenario planning tools,develop professional scenario planning research teams to improve the crisis response ability.