2020年国际油价暴跌原因分析及后市展望

International oil price collapse cause analysis and outlook in 2020

2020年新冠肺炎疫情的暴发给全球石油市场带来深远影响,全球石油需求坍塌式下降,国际油价历史性暴跌,WTI甚至自上市以来首次出现负油价。2020年5月以来,随着全球各国逐步解封并重启经济、OPEC+开始实施史上最大规模减产、以美国和加拿大为首的非OPEC+产油国石油产量明显下降,石油市场最坏的时刻已过,市场基本面开始改善,国际油价有所反弹。下半年,全球石油需求将渐进修复,石油供应仍将被控制在较低水平,全球石油市场将出现供不应求,国际油价将进一步回升。

The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 brought far-reaching impact to the world oil market. The world oil demand collapsed and the international oil price fell sharply, WTI even appeared the negative oil price for the first time since its listing. Since May 2020, as countries around the world gradually unsealed and restarted their economies, OPEC + began to implement the largest production reduction in history, and non OPEC + oil production led by the United States and Canada declined significantly, the worst time of the oil market has passed, market fundamentals have begun to improve, and international oil prices have rebounded. In the second half of the year, the world’s oil demand will be gradually restored, the oil supply will still be controlled at a low level, the global oil market will be in short supply, and the international oil price will rise further.