经济政策不确定性对中国生态农业上市公司投资的影响——基于2010-2017年季度数据的实证分析

The Impact of Uncertainty in Economic Policy on Investment in China’s Eco-Agricultural Listed Companies——Empirical analysis based on quarterly data from 2010 to 2017

从生态农业政策视角出发,选取2010-2017年A股生态农业上市公司季度数据作为研究样本,利用中国经济政策不确定性指数构建研究变量,实证检验经济政策不确定性对生态农业上市公司投资的影响.结果表明,在控制季度效应和季节效应下,EPU系数分别为-0.0029、-0.0030,均在1%的显著性水平下显著,说明经济政策不确定性会显著减少生态农业上市公司投资,且主要来自于投资不可逆转性较低、投资回报率较低的子样本.研究结果对于从生态农业投资的视角理解中国生态农业政策实施效果具有一定意义.提出面对经济政策变动时,生态农业上市公司应该充分考虑自身生产、经营的特征来优化投资决策以及国家经济政策制定机构应该根据生态农业上市公司面对经济政策不确定性时的反应,采取积极的措施,在稳定经济政策的基础上降低经济政策调整带来的不利影响.

From the perspective of eco-agriculture policy,this paper selects the quarterly data of A-share eco-agricultural listed companies from 2010 to 2017 as a research sample,constructs research variables using China’s economic policy uncertainty index,and empirically tests the uncertainty of economic policy investment in eco-agricultural listed companies.Impact.The results show that under the control of seasonal and seasonal effects,the EPU coefficients are-0.0029 and-0.0030,respectively,both of which are significant at the 1%significance level,indicating that economic policy uncertainty will significantly reduce the investment of eco-agricultural listed companies,and mainly From sub-samples with low investment irreversibility and low return on investment.The research results have certain significance for understanding the implementation effect of China’s ecological agriculture policy from the perspective of ecological agriculture investment.When faced with changes in economic policies,eco-agricultural listed companies should fully consider the characteristics of their own production and management to optimize investment decisions and national economic policy-making institutions should take active measures based on the response of eco-agricultural listed companies to economic policy uncertainties.Measures to reduce the adverse effects of economic policy adjustments based on stable economic policies.