基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的居民屋顶光伏设备安装意愿的影响因素研究

Study of the Influencing Factors of the Installation Willingness to Residents’ Roof Photovoltaic Equipment Based on DEMATEL-ISM Model

研究以宁波居民为调查对象,首先就居民屋顶光伏设备安装的采纳意愿进行了调查,进而采用DEMATEL-ISM方法就居民屋顶光伏设备安装意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析.统计表明居民愿意安装屋顶光伏发电设备的占被调查人员的73.77%,城市居民光伏发电设备安装意愿略高于农村居民,近期有打算安装光伏发电设备的被调查者约占3.56%;DEMATEL分析表明中心度排在前四位的因素分别是分布密度、补贴力度、投资回报时间和安装成本,它们对于居民光伏发电设备安装意愿有着非常重要的影响;ISM分析进一步表明售后服务和住房特征是影响居民安装光伏发电设备安装意愿的直接影响因素,而光伏法规、补贴力度、并网技术、设备质量是影响居民家庭屋顶光伏设备安装意愿最根本的因素.

This study takes Ningbo citizens as the survey object.Firstly,it studies the residents’ willingness to install photovoltaic(PV) equipment on the roof.Then,the DEMATELISM method is used to analyze the influencing factors of residents’ willingness to install PV equipment.Statistical results show show that about 73.77% of Residents are willing to install PV power equipment,and the urban residents’ willingness to adopt is slightly higher than that of rural residents.The number of respondents who plan to install PV equipment in the near future is about 3.56%.The DEMATEL analysis shows that the top four factors of center degree are distribution density,subsidy intensity,investment return time and installation cost,which have a very important impact on the willingness of residents to adopt PV equipment;The ISM analysis further shows that after-sales service and housing characteristics are the direct influences affecting the installation decision of PV installation equipment,while PV regulations,state-of-the-art technology,subsidies,and equipment quality are the most fundamental factors affecting the installation willingness to residents’ roof PV equipment.