2015-2020年中山市四类慢性病早死概率与死亡水平分析

Analysis on the early death probability and death level of four main non-communicable diseases(NCDs)in Zhongshan City from 2015 to 2020

目的了解2015-2020年中山市慢性病死亡情况和早死概率变化趋势,预测实现国家四类慢性病(心血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和恶性肿瘤)早死概率目标情况,为评价慢性病防控策略和措施效果提供科学依据。方法收集中山市2015-2020年户籍居民死亡个案信息和人口资料,采用Excel 2007整理数据,计算慢性病死亡率、四类慢性病早死概率及其年均变化速度。采用SPSS 25.0对数据进行统计分析,率的时间变化趋势采用对数线性回归法计算年度变化百分比(APC)进行评价,以四类慢性病早死概率2025和2030年的控制目标为标准,评估中山市四类慢性病早死概率达标情况。结果2015-2020年中山市户籍居民慢性病死亡约占总死亡的89.67%,慢性病标化死亡率由2015年的331.58/10万下降到2020年的291.48/10万,呈逐年下降趋势,APC为-2.858%,差异有统计学意义,P<0.05。四类慢性病早死概率男性高于同时期女性。全人群四类慢性病早死概率由2015年的14.98%下降至2020年的13.30%,呈逐年下降趋势,APC为-2.176%,差异有统计学意义,P<0.05。按照相应变化速度,中山市全人群和女性四类慢性病早死概率均能实现2025年目标(下降20%)和2030年目标(下降30%)。结论中山市四类慢性病早死概率与经济发达地方相比存在差距,应将男性列为慢性病防治的重点人群,进一步降低中山市慢性病早死概率,实现全面而均衡的健康水平。

Objective To realize the death of chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs)and the trend of premature death probability in Zhongshan City from 2015 to 2020,and to predict the achievement of the national targets for the premature death probability of four main NCDs,so as to provide a scientific basis for evaluating the effects of chronic disease prevention and control strategies and measures.Methods By collecting the death cases and population data of registered residents in Zhongshan from 2015 to 2020,Excel 2007 was used to sort out the data and analyze the mortality rate of chronic disease,the probability of early death of four main NCDs and the average annual change rate.SPSS 25.0 software was used for statistical analysis.The log-linear regression was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)for the evaluation of the time-changing trend of the rates.Taking the control targets of the premature death probability of four main NCDs in 2025 and 2030 as the standard,the achievement of the premature death probability of four main NCDs in Zhongshan was evaluated.Results From 2015 to 2020,deaths of NCDs accounted for about 89.67%of the total deaths of registered residents in Zhongshan.The standardized mortality rate of NCDs decreased from 331.58/100000 in 2015 to 291.48/100000 in 2020,showing a decreasing trend year by year,with an APC of-2.858%,and the difference was statistical significance(P<0.05).The probability of premature death of four main NCDs in males was higher than that in females in the same period.The probability of premature death of four main NCDs in the whole population decreased from 14.98%in 2015 to 13.30%in 2020,showing a decreasing trend year by year,and the APC was-2.176%,and the difference was statistical significance(P<0.05).According to the corresponding rate of change,the probability of premature death of four main NCDs of the whole population and of women in Zhongshan City can achieve the 2025target(20%reduction)and 2030target(30%reduction).Conclusions There is a gap between Zhongshan City and the economically developed places in the probability of premature death of four main NCDs.Therefore,males should be listed as the key population for the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases,so as to further reduce the prematurely death probability of chronic diseases in Zhongshan City,and achieve a comprehensive and balanced health level.