我国人口结构及老龄化收敛趋势研究

The Convergence Trend of the Age Structure and the Aging Population in China

本文以Leslie矩阵为基础,结合生育率和死亡率假设,构建了人口动力系统,以研究我国未来人口结构的变化,并探索我国人口老龄化现象的持续时间和发展轨迹。在一定假设下,本文证明了死亡率不变时我国未来人口年龄结构的遍历性和老龄人口占比的收敛性。对死亡率持续变化的情形,本文用数值模拟的方式加以验证,也得到了老龄人口占比收敛的结论。此外,本文研究指出,虽然人口结构具有收敛性,但是稳定之后的老龄人口占比依然很高,即老龄化的现象将是长期持续的。因此,面对庞大的老年群体,我国政策方案应以老龄经济的长期可持续发展为宗旨,充分落实惠民养老政策,为应对老龄化的持久战夯实基础。

Based on the Leslie matrix and the assumptions about fertility and mortality,this paper constructs a population dynamic system to study the changes of China’s future age structure and explore the cycle and trace of its aging phenomenon.We theoretically prove that,under the constant mortality rate,the age structure as well as the proportion of the elderly will converge in the future.As to the case where the mortality changes continuously,the convergence of age structure and that of the proportion of the elderly are verified by the means of numerical simulation.In addition,the study points out that although the age structure will ultimately converge,the proportion of the elderly is still high even in the steady state.That is,the aging problem will be a long-lasting phenomenon in the future society.Therefore,in the face of such a large amount of aging population,our policy plan should aim at the long-term sustainable development of the aging economy,and fully benefit the elderly,so as to prepare for the protracted war of aging.