中国新农保制度的实践与问题分析

Analysis of China’s New Rural Society Pension System

研究目标:在人口老龄化背景下,实证考察新型农村社会养老保险制度对于农村老年人劳动供给的影响。研究方法:利用大样本调查数据,采用断点回归的方法解决可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现:新农保对劳动力供给产生了明显的抑制效果,且在农业劳动力供给方面(相对于非农劳动力供给)更为突出;外部制度环境对于新农保政策作用的发挥具有重要影响,居住在民主程度较高村庄的居民在领取养老金后更倾向于减少其劳动供给;但地方政府基层治理能力的改善则会缓解新农保的劳动供给抑制效应;此外,地区经济发展水平高低与新农保的劳动抑制作用大小呈正相关。研究创新:量化新农保对于农村劳动力供给的影响,揭示外部制度环境对于新农保作用发挥的重要性。研究价值:深化对新农保和农村劳动力供给间关系的认识,对更加积极有为地应对农村人口老龄化问题具有启示意义和参考价值。

Research Objectives:Under the background of the ageing tendency of population,this paper empirically examines the impact of China’s New Rural Society Pension System on rural labor supply.Research Methods:To do so,we draw on a survey dataset and a regression discontinuity approach.Research Findings:The New Rural Society Pension System has significantly reduced the labor supply among rural areas,wherein it comes mainly from the diminished supply in farm sector.The external institutional environment also matters.People in areas with high democratic degree are more likely to negatively respond to the New Rural Society Pension System.Local governments with higher governance capacity can ease the extent of negative effects.And residents in more(less)developed areas are more(less)inclined to cut their labor supply.Research Innovations:This paper quantifies the impacts of China’s New Rural Society Pension System on rural labor supply and reveals the critical role of the institutional environment.Research Value:This paper highlights the relationship between China’s New Rural Society Pension System and rural labor supply,and thus provides important lessons on how to effectively deal with the ageing of rural population.