要素替代弹性估计方法的比较与改进

Comparison and Improvement of Estimating Methods of Elasticity of Factor Substitution

研究目标:筛选出要素替代弹性的最优估计方法,并对其进行改进,实现要素替代弹性由静态估计到动态估计的跨越。研究方法:从可扩展性、参数识别的全面性及可靠性三个维度,对三种估计方法的优缺点进行比较分析;以估计1978~2017年中国的要素替代弹性为例,通过实证检验完成最优估计方法的判定,并借鉴数据包络分析的窗式移动思想,进行最优方法的动态改进。研究发现:最优一阶条件法和Kmenta级数展开法存在可扩展性较差、参数识别不全面、多重共线性严重、估计结论前后矛盾等问题;标准化供给面系统方法的灵活性、准确性与可靠性更高,在动态改进后仍然能够实现要素替代弹性的有效估计。研究创新:在完全与非完全竞争市场假设、技术进步率不变与可变框架下,对要素替代弹性估计方法的优缺点进行全面的实证检验,并创新性地提出一种窗式动态估计的改进思路,解决要素替代弹性的动态估计难题。研究价值:消除现有研究的要素替代弹性估计争论,促进要素替代弹性的准确识别,为要素替代弹性的经济意义分析提供坚实保障。

Research Objectives:To screen out the optimal estimation method of elasticity of factor substitution and make an improvement to the optimal method to realize the leap from static estimation to dynamic estimation of elasticity of factor substitution.Research Methods:This paper compares and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the three estimation methods from the perspectives of scalability,comprehensiveness of parameter identification and reliability;then,we make the judgment of the optimal estimation method through empirical testing by taking the estimation of China’s elasticity of factor substitution in 1978~2017 as an example,and put forward an idea of window movement from data envelopment analysis to achieve the dynamic improvement of the optimal method.Research Findings:The optimal first-order condition method and Kmenta series expansion method have the problems of poor scalability,incomplete identification of parameters,serious multicollinearity,and contradictory results;normalized supply-side system approach has higher flexibility,accuracy and reliability of estimation,and it can still achieve the effective estimation of elasticity of factor substitution after dynamic improvement.Research Innovations:Under the combination conditions of perfect or imperfectly competitive markets and constant or variable rate of technical progress,we conduct a comprehensive empirical test on the advantages and disadvantages of the estimation methods,and then we innovatively propose an improvement idea of windowstyle dynamic estimation to solve the problem of dynamic estimation of elasticity of factor substitution.Research Value:This paper helps to eliminate the disagreements in the estimation on elasticity of factor substitution in existing researches,clarifies the accurate identification of elasticity of factor substitution,and promotes the correct analysis of the economic meaning of elasticity of factor substitution.