中国农村相对贫困变动和分解:2002~2018

Changes and Decomposition of Rural Relative Poverty in China:2002~2018

研究目标:分析我国农村相对贫困长期变动的影响因素及其发展趋势。研究方法:本文使用基于洛伦兹曲线的相对贫困衡量和分解方法,不仅衡量了农村相对贫困的长期变动,并且将其变动进行分解。研究发现:按照不同的相对贫困标准,2002~2018年我国农村相对贫困发生率都呈上升趋势;2002~2018年我国农村相对贫困发生率上升了5.6%,其中增长效应为1.98%,分配效应为5.61%,残差效应为-1.99%;从发展趋势来看,增长效应和分配效应对农村相对贫困发生率变动的正向影响呈递减趋势,残差效应对农村相对贫困发生率变动的负向影响呈递减趋势。研究创新:使用基于洛伦兹曲线的相对贫困衡量和分解方法,刻画了我国相对贫困的长期变动及其影响因素的变动趋势。研究价值:有助于厘清我国农村相对贫困长期变动成因,对巩固脱贫成果和建立有效应对相对贫困长效机制具有一定的借鉴。

Research objective:To analyze the factors influencing the long-term change of rural relative poverty and its development trend.Research methods:The relative poverty measurement and decomposition method based on Lorentz curve is used in this paper to not only measure the long-term change of rural relative poverty,but also decompose its change.According to different relative poverty standards,the incidence of relative poverty in rural areas of China has been on the rise from 2002 to 2018.From 2002 to 2018,the incidence of relative poverty in rural areas increased by 5.6%,of which the growth effect was1.98%,the distribution effect 5.61%and the residual effect-1.99%.From the perspective of development trend,the positive influence of growth effect and distribution effect on the change of rural relative poverty incidence shows a decreasing trend,while the negative influence of residual effect on the change of rural relative poverty incidence shows a decreasing trend.Research innovation:The lorentz curve based relative poverty measurement and decomposition method is used to describe the long-term change of relative poverty in China and the change trend of its influencing factors.Research value:It is helpful to clarify the causes of long-term changes of rural relative poverty in China,and to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation and establish effective longterm mechanism to deal with relative poverty.