中国居民房产税影响:宏观效应和收入差距

The Impact of Chinese Residents’s Property Tax:Macroeconomic Effects and Income Gap

研究目标:量化分析不同居民房产税改革方案对我国宏观经济和行业产出的影响。研究方法:基于2017年中国投入产出表及相关宏观数据,构建中国居民房产税一般均衡模型,并设置八种房产税改革方案进行模拟分析。研究发现:居民房产税改革对实际GDP、总产出、总出口、总进口、总投资、居民消费产生负面影响,对政府消费产生正面影响,且影响效果随着房产税改革政策的不同呈现出不同的变化。同时,房产税改革提高了政府收入,降低了城镇居民和农村居民的可支配收入,在一定程度上缩小了城乡财富分配差距。研究创新:基于一般均衡理论框架,推导出房产税作用机理的理论分析框架,并将居民房产税引入CGE模型,测算出房产税改革方案的影响效果,并得到一般性结论。研究价值:弥补了现有房产税相关研究的不足,为全国范围内推行房产税改革政策提供决策参考。

Research Objectives:This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of different residential property tax reform plans on my country’s macroeconomic and industrial output.Research Methods:Based on the 2017 China input-output table and related macro data,construct a general equilibrium model of Chinese residential property tax,and set up eight types of property tax reform plans for simulation analysis.Research Findings:Resident real estate tax reform has a negative impact on real GDP,total output,total exports,total imports,total investment,and household consumption,and has a positive impact on government consumption,and the effect of the impact has shown different changes with different real estate tax reform policies..At the same time,the property tax reform has increased government revenue,reduced the disposable income of urban and rural residents,and narrowed the urban-rural wealth distribution gap to a certain extent.Research Innovations:Based on the general equilibrium theoretical framework,the residential property tax was introduced into the CGE model,and the impact of the property tax reform program was measured and general conclusions were obtained.Research Value:It makes up for the deficiencies of existing real estate tax related research and provides decision-making reference for the implementation of real estate tax reform policies nationwide.