北京市降水量变化趋势分析

Trend analysis on the precipitation in Beijing

以北京站为代表站,采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall检验法、R/S分析法和小波分析法对北京市降水趋势进行分析,研究结果表明:1841—2016年北京地区降水量呈下降趋势,且下降较为明显,年均降水量下降0.5 mm/a;北京未来一段时间处于枯水期末段,降水量虽仍将维持偏枯水平,但有增多趋势。

Taking Beijing station as a representative station,the linear tendency method,Mann Kendall test method,R/S analysis method and wavelet analysis method have been used to analyze the precipitation trend of Beijing.The research results show that the precipitation in Beijing from 1841 to 2016 shows a downward trend,and the decline is relatively obvious,with an average annual precipitation of 0.5 mm/a.Beijing will be in the end of the dry period for some time in the future.Although the precipitation will still be maintained in the dry level,but its trend is increased.