中国细分林产品进口贸易影响因素的异质性分析

Heterogeneity Analysis of Factors Influencing Import Trade in Forest Product Segments in China

文中运用结构引力模型对12个细分类别下的中国林产品进口贸易影响因素进行了实证分析;纳入双边贸易国家的国内市场因素,将双方国内林产品生产和消费变量引入模型。研究结果显示:部分变量符合研究预期,并显示出良好的显著性,但也有多个变量回归结果显著而与研究预期相反。从中国林产品进口来源国的地理属性、各类林产品的加工特征、运输方式和消费习惯等角度,分析其原因如下:中国政府严格的林业产业政策和贸易干预政策对不同林产品的回归结果产生了深刻影响。该研究从贸易的角度佐证了中国林业产业政策与贸易政策的一致性,且共同作用效果显著,即实现了减少国内林木原材料出口、降低初级加工类林产品出口、减轻林木产品初级加工过程对环境的破坏和切实延长林业产业链的目标。因此,继续坚持现行林业产业政策和贸易政策的连续性将促进中国林产品进口,从而实现对国内林业资源的有效保护和合理开发。

This paper uses the structural gravity model to empirically analyze the influencing factors to the import trade in 12 segments of forest product.Integrating the national market factors of bilateral trading countries introduces the variables of national production and consumption of forest products into the model.The results indicate that some variables meet the research expectations and exhibit good significance,while multiple variables have significant regression results but stay contrary to research expectations.From the perspectives of geographical attributes of China’s forest product suppliers,processing characteristics of various types of forest products,transportation methods and consumption habits,the paper identifies the reasons behind,i.e.,China’s policies on forestry industry and trade intervention have a profound impact on the regression results of different segments of forest products.This study confirms the consistency between China’s forestry industry policy and trade policy from the trade perspective and the significant combined effect,i.e.,achieving the goals of reducing the export of domestic forest materials,decreasing the export of primarily processed forest products,mitigating the environmental damage caused by the processing of primary forest products and effectively extending forestry industry chain.Therefore,continuing to adhere to the current policies on forestry industry and trade will boost the import of forest products in China,thereby achieving effective protection and rational development of forestry resources in China.