德国“嵌入式崛起”的路径与困境

The Path and Dilemma of Germany’s “Embedded Rise”

现有大国崛起研究往往过多关注"修昔底德陷阱"式案例,忽略了诸如德国"嵌入式崛起"的替代路径,从而导致不同程度的选择偏差和执果导因问题。嵌入式崛起是指崛起国通过价值内化和身份塑造,"嵌入"主导国所建立和维护的价值体系和国际秩序中,并以此为基本前提来积极追求权力的增长和影响力的扩大,聚焦于规范性权力的塑造而非基于实力的权力,致力于成为"塑造性大国"。德国在半个多世纪中践行了嵌入式崛起,在大国地位稳步上升的同时避免了与现有霸权国及其体系之间的紧张关系。作者分析了德国的嵌入式崛起在国际安全领域追求大国地位时遭遇的困境,即在由实力政治主导的现有国际安全秩序中,德国试图推行以规范代替实力的全球安全秩序观,不但有悖于主导国所推行的全球安全秩序并对其构成挑战,而且面临着嵌入与崛起之间的两难:坚持塑造则相对于现有主导国而成为他者,保持与现有主导国的认同一致则限制德国在安全领域追求塑造性大国目标的努力。德国正积极探索如何克服嵌入式崛起的困境,即在不成为军事大国的前提下成为全球性安全大国。德国的崛起经验为新兴大国如何避免"修昔底德陷阱"和构建新型国际关系提供了借鉴。

Existing studies on power transition in international relations focus exclusively on cases that led to or experienced the risk of the"Thucydides trap",but neglect the possibilities of alternative paths to great power status.As a result,those arguments and theories suffer from selection bias.For instance,very little attention has been paid to the"embedded rise"of Germany in the post-Second World War era.When searching for the great power status,Germany"embeds"itself into the value system and international order established and maintained by the status quo hegemon.It internalizes the dominant western values and chooses its identity as a"western"country,which serves a premise to its rise.Accordingly,Germany adopts a different rising strategy from those rising powers intensively discussed in the literature.This strategy is to focus on obtaining and wielding"shaping power"by emphasizing norms and institutions and condemning realpolitik in international affairs.Following"embedded rise",Germany has steadily increased its status as a major power while avoiding tensions with the hegemon.This paper traces the trajectory of German"embedded rise"and builds a theoretical framework to understand such a paradigm of rising powers.Furthermore,based on comparative studies,this paper points out the limitations of"embedded rise":there exists a dilemma between embedding and rising,which highlights itself in the domain of international security.Great efforts have been made by Germany to overcome the obstacles in the way of its rise,but it is still unclear whether and how Germany can resolve the intrinsic dilemma of"embedded rise".Nonetheless,the German case demonstrates a possibility of avoiding the"Thucydides trap"and provides valuable experience in peacefully shaping the global order as a rising power.