对冲策略及对中国—东盟关系的意义

Hedging Strategy and Implications for China-ASEAN Relations

近几年,越来越多的研究借用对冲来描述小国应对中国快速发展的行为,并将对冲定义为与制衡、跟随并列的第三种策略选择。绝大多数对冲概念因为脱离其金融学本义而缺少降低或规避不确定性风险的含义。在重新界定对冲概念的基础上,作者认为对冲操作本质上是一种风险转移策略,并不能从系统中消除风险。由于国际体系中并不存在类似期货市场中的风险偏好者,小国实施对冲无法把风险转移出去,因而其基本操作是尽可能维持大国平衡以降低选错边的风险。这使对冲演变为一种推迟的跟随战略。实践中,对冲往往表现为小国与两个大国同时开展合作以维持大国平衡,或者以与一个大国的关系水平为标尺来调整与另一个大国的关系。对中国—东盟关系来说,对冲概念有助于理解近年来出现的东盟国家"经济上靠中国、安全上靠美国"现象。同时,东盟国家因为实施对冲操作而选择拒绝大国的"拥抱",这使中国改善与其政治关系的努力收效甚微。

In recent years,more and more scholars have borrowed the terminology"hedging"from financial realm to describe the behaviors of small countries.Furthermore,they defined hedging as the third strategic choices in parallel with balancingand bandwagoning.The current scholarship indicates that most concepts of hedging separate themselves from its original meaning as a financial terminology,lacking a behavioral design of lowering or avoiding uncertain risks.This article redefines hedging and further points out that hedging is in fact a strategy that transfer risks to a third party but fails to remove risks from the system.However,actors in the international system don’t share a same risk appetite as investors in the futures market.Therefore,even though small countries adopt the strategy of hedging,the risks cannot be transferred.Hedging will only help countries maintain the balance of power in the region so as to lower the risks when they have chosen the side incorrectly.Hedging has thus become a strategy of deferred-bandwagoning.In practice,hedging occurs when a small country cooperates simultaneously with two great powers,resulting in the balance of power.Or it is also hedging when a small country adjusts its relationship with one great power by measuring its relationship with another.In terms of China-ASEAN relations,the concept of hedging is conducive to understanding why ASEAN countries rely on China for economy but America for security.By the same token,ASEAN countries are able to reject the hugs from great powers when adopting hedging strategy.In that case,it is rarely effective that China can promote its political influence in Southeast Asia through close economic ties,leading to inadequate mutual trust.