政府换届周期对城市空间扩张的影响

The Impacts of Government Official Turnover on Urban Expansion

本文研究了地方官员换届周期对城市蔓延的长期影响。动态公共品投资模型分析的结果表明,换届周期影响了政府在公共品投资决策中对长短期收益和成本的权衡,造成公共品投入和地方债务的周期性变化,并导致均衡条件下过高的公共品投入及较低的总产出。本文基于卫星夜间灯光遥感影像,构造了1992-2012年279个城市的空间扩张速度和跳跃性指标,并结合政府债务数据,度量了换届周期对城市扩张的影响。结果表明,新市委书记上任后,城市夜光面积年均增长率达到1%,官员换届使得城市跳跃式扩张概率提高15%-36%,而任期的不确定性会增强城市扩张跳跃性,其代价是推动了地方债务增长,降低了城市未来增长的可持续性,挤出了科技教育等财政支出。中央政府应重视完善官员任期制度,引导合理预期,减少行为短视化和政策不延续。

This paper investigates the long-term effects of the turnover of government officials on urban expansion in China.First,the paper discusses the impact of the government officials’cyclical change on urban growth through a dynamic public good investment model.The model predicts that the change in the turnover probability may affect the weight of the future cost of making public investment decisions of myopic governments,which leads to a cycle of public investment and increases debt.Then we empirically examine the impacts of local government officials’turnover on the urban expansion of 279 cities between 1992 and 2012,employing satellite luminous remote sensing imagery and constructing spatial expansion speed and jump indicators.Empirical results show that a newly appointed secretary of the party’s municipal committee leads to 1%annual increase of urban expansion speed,a change of secretary and mayor increases the likelihood of jumping expansion between 15%and 36%.This is particularly significant in the second year of mandate,and term uncertainty improves the speed and jump in urban expansion.The vast expansion of cities caused by the turnover of government officials has come at a high price,promoted local debt growth.The heavy debt burden has further reduced the sustainability of future urban growth and financial spending on science,technology,education and social welfare programs.The findings indicate that China needs to improve the mandate system of local officials in order to set reasonable expectations,reduce short-sighted behaviour and enhance policy continuity.