中国核心通货膨胀结构变迁与部门核心通货膨胀分解

Core Inflation Structure Changes and Sector Core Inflation Decomposition in China

本文采用结构化动态因子模型测算反映中国物价长期变化趋势的核心通货膨胀指标,并刻画核心通货膨胀的总体趋势、总体波动、部门趋势和部门波动,以分析中国通货膨胀体系的结构变化特征与机理。研究发现,现阶段中国整体物价走势渐趋平稳,部门核心通货膨胀在2012年后呈扁平化趋势,食品和居住部门通货膨胀波动大幅减弱,服务部门通胀波动增强,说明服务部门可能成为主导未来物价走势的重点;现阶段部门物价变动协同性大幅减弱,说明爆发整体性通货膨胀或通货紧缩的概率有所下降。因此,未来通胀治理工作应着眼于平抑部门价格波动,这也是经济迈向高质量发展的重要保障。

This paper uses a structured dynamic factor model to measure the core inflation indicators that reflect the long-term trend of China’s price changes,and characterize the overall trend,overall fluctuations,sectoral trends and sectoral fluctuations of core inflation to analyze the characteristics and variation mechanism of China.The study finds that the overall price trend has gradually stabilized at this stage,and sectoral core inflation has shown a flattening after 2012.The volatility of inflation in the food and housing sectors has greatly weakened,and the volatility of inflation in the service sector has increased,indicating that the service sector may become the dominant sector in future.The synchronization of sectoral price changes has greatly weakened at this stage,indicating that the probability of serious inflation or deflation will decline.Therefore,the focus of inflation control efforts in future should be on stabilizing the fluctuation of sector prices,which will also become an important guarantee for the economy to move towards high-quality development.