云南人口城市化与土地城市化耦合协调发展研究

Analysis on coupling and coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yunnan Province

从人口城市化质量与土地城市化质量两方面,构建人口城市化与土地城市化耦合协调发展评价指标体系。以2007~2016年相关数据为支撑,定量计算云南省多年人口城市化与土地城市化耦合度、综合发展指数和协调发展度,并根据协调发展类型划分标准对研究时段内云南人口城市化与土地城市化的协调发展类型和对比类型进行划分,并在此基础上对二者的协调状态进行评估;同时在GIS技术支持下,分别以2007年和2016年为时间节点,揭示不同时段云南省各市(州)人口城市化与土地城市化协调发展的空间格局特征与空间格局的变化特征。研究表明:从时间序列特征看,云南自2010年起土地城市化快于人口城市化,土地规模扩展过快,存在造成空城的风险;城市化水平总体发展趋势良好,人口与土地之间的相互依赖程度高;人口城市化与土地城市化协调发展趋势良好,逐步进入协调阶段;从空间格局特征看,呈现以昆明为中心,从中部"协调型"逐步转变为边缘"失调型"的空间格局;土地城市化滞后型数量少,且集中分布于滇中和滇西北地区;人口城市化滞后型数量多,广泛分布于滇东、滇西、滇南和滇东北的大部分地区;各市(州)协调发展状态分属协调阶段、磨合阶段和失调阶段,协调发展对比类型空间差异显著。

Apply coupling and coordination research achievement,from population and land build the coupling and coordination evaluation index system about population urbanization and land urbanization.Based on the relevant data from 2007 to 2016,calculate coupling degree development index and coordinated development degree between population urbanization and land urbanization in Yunnan province for many years,and according to the classification of coordinated development types,divide coordinated development type and comparison type in Yunnan province during the study period,and evaluate the coordination status.At the same time,with the support of GIS technology,taking 2007 and 2016 as time nodes,reveal the spatial pattern characteristics and spatial pattern of variation characteristics between population urbanization and land urbanization in different cities(states)in Yunnan province.The result shows that:From the characteristics of time series,land urbanization was faster than population urbanization since2010 in Yunnan province,the scale of land expansion is too fast,and there is a risk of empty cities.The overall development trend of urbanization level is good,interdependence between population and land is high,and gradually enter the coordination phase;From the feature of spatial pattern,appear the spatial pattern with Kunming as the center and gradually changing from the central"coordination"to the edge"disorder";The number of land urbanization lagging is few and centralized distributed in central Yunnan and Northwest Yunnan.The number of population urbanization lagging is much;The coordinated development status of each city(state)belongs to coordination phase,running-in phase and disorder phase,and the spatial difference of the coordinated development types is significant.