中印对尼泊尔地缘影响力的演变分析

Analysis on the evolution of China and India’s geopolitical influence on Nepal

尼泊尔在地理位置上处于中国和印度包围之中,由于历史原因,其经济、政治、军事等长期受到制约。随着中国"一带一路"倡议的推进和中印近年来领土和国际政治问题的冲突与分歧,尼泊尔正在成为中印新的角力场。本文首先通过构建地缘影响力模型进行演变格局分析与趋势预测,并加入世界环境和区域环境两方面影响因素,运用定性与定量分析结合的方法,预测中、尼、印三国未来战略行动方向。综合以上分析发现:1)2000年—2016年,中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力较于印度对于尼泊尔地缘影响力上升趋势明显,预计在2022年至2023年中、印对尼泊尔地缘影响力达到平衡。2)硬实力是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力上升的关键因素;软实力和交流互动力是未来中国增强在尼泊尔地缘影响力的发展因素;地理环境是中国对尼泊尔地缘影响力发展的制约因素。3)未来中国将继续实施积极性合作战略,印度形成对中国遏制性防范战略,尼泊尔维持被动性中印平衡战略。

Nepal is geographically surrounded by China and India.Due to historical reasons,its economy,politics,and military have long been restricted by India.With the advancement of China’s"One Belt,One Road"Initiative and the conflicts and differences between China and India in recent years,Nepal is becoming a new"Fighting field"of China and India.This paper firstly constructs the geo-impact model to analyze the evolution pattern and trend,and joins the influencing factors of the world environment and the regional environment,and uses the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis to predict the future strategic direction of China,Nepal and India.This paper has three conclusions:1)From 2000 to 2016,China’s geopolitical influence on Nepal is more obvious than India’s geopolitical influence on Nepal.It is expected that China and India will achieve balance from 2022 to 2023.2)Hard power is a key factor in China’s rising geopolitical influence on Nepal;soft power and exchange interaction are the development factors for China’s future strengthening of geopolitical influence on Nepal;geographical environment is the limiting factor for China.3)In the future,China will continue to implement a proactive cooperation strategy,India will form a strategy to contain China’s containment,and Nepal will maintain a passive China-India balance strategy.