中国财税政策不确定性的度量及其经济影响模拟——基于异质性居民的视角

Measuring China’s Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Its Dynamic Effect from the Perspective of Heterogeneous Residents

宏观经济进入"新常态"前后,中国各级政府采取"组合拳"式的政策试图稳定经济增长,各项政策的频繁出台及其他因素引致了财政政策的不确定性。文章构建了中国各项财政政策、税收政策的不确定性指数,通过实证分析讨论了政策不确定性对于宏观经济的影响,还采用含财政、税收不确定性的异质性居民DSGE模型,讨论了政策不确定性和政策预期不确定性对宏观经济的影响。研究发现:财政支出和税收政策的不确定性不利于经济增长;财政支出不确定性的影响大于税收不确定性的影响;"李嘉图型"居民比例的增加可以降低财政支出不确定的负面影响,降低经济的波动程度;当期财税政策的不确定性对宏观经济的影响最大,而财税政策预期不确定性对宏观经济的影响相对降低。

As China’s macro economy entering a‘new normal’stage,Chinese government takes various types of macroeconomic policies to stabilize its economic growth.However,the frequent introduction of new and old policies and other factors leads to the uncertainty of fiscal policy.This paper first quantitatively constructs the uncertainty index of all kinds of fiscal policies and taxation policies of China,and then discusses the influence of fiscal policy uncertainty on economic growth by means of empirical analysis.By constructing a DSGE model of heterogeneous residents with fiscal and tax uncertainties,this paper further discusses the impact of policy uncertainties and policy expectation uncertainties on macro-economy.The results show that,firstly,uncertainty of fiscal expenditure and tax policy are not conducive to economic growth,which is consistent in both empirical and theoretical aspects.Secondly,the impact of fiscal expenditure uncertainty is greater than that of tax uncertainty.Thirdly,increasing the proportion of‘Ricardotype’residents can reduce the negative impact of fiscal uncertainty and reduce the degree of economic fluctuation.Finally,the uncertainty of fiscal policies in the current period has the greatest impact on macro-economy,while the uncertainty of fiscal policy expectations has a relatively lower impact on macro-economy.