中国制造业技术进步的路径选择:兼具“技术”和“规模”的双重视角

The Path of Technological Progress in China’s Manufacturing Industry:A Dual Perspective of “Technology” and “Scale”

在不同类型创新发展战略下,结合行业技术特征与规模特征,构建面板门槛模型,探索行业规模影响下中国技术异质性制造业的技术进步路径选择。研究发现:自主创新、国外技术引进、国内技术购买和模仿创新对技术异质性制造业技术进步均存在基于行业规模的面板门槛效应。对于低技术制造业,在自主创新、国内技术购买和模仿创新模式下,对技术进步的影响呈现出关于行业规模的非线性“U”型曲线特征,而国外技术引进对技术进步的影响始终为负,但当行业规模跨越门槛值时,其负影响大幅度减弱。对于中、高技术制造业,自主创新对技术进步的影响呈现出关于行业规模的非线性“U”型曲线特征。国外技术引进、国内技术购买和模仿创新对技术进步的影响始终为负,但当行业规模扩大并跨越不同门槛值时,其负影响大幅度减弱,甚至不再显著。为此,本文建议不同类型制造业应该兼具“技术”和“规模”双重内涵适时调整创新战略,这对创新驱动转型升级至关重要。

With different types of innovation development strategies,a panel threshold model is constructed to explore the path selections of technological progress in China’s technologically heterogeneous manufacturing industry under the influence of industry size by combining industry technology characteristics and scale characteristics.It is found that there is a panel threshold effect based on industry size for technological progress in technology heterogeneous manufacturing industry for independent innovation,foreign technology introduction,domestic technology purchase and imitative innovation.For low-technology manufacturing industries,the effects on technological progress in the modes of independent innovation,domestic technology purchase and imitative innovation show a non-linear“U”curve of industry size,while the effect of foreign technology introduction on technological progress is always negative,but its negative effect is substantially reduced when industry size surpasses the threshold.The impact of foreign technology introduction,domestic technology purchase and imitative innovation on technological progress is always negative,but when the industry scale expands and surpasses different thresholds,the negative impact is greatly reduced and even no longer significant.Therefore,this paper suggests that different types of manufacturing industries should adjust their innovation strategies in time with the dual connotation of“technology”and“scale”,which is crucial for innovation-driven transformation and upgrading.