什么因素影响着学前教育毛入园率——基于对全国31省市三期学前教育三年行动计划中毛入园率的审视与思考

What Factors Affect the Gross Enrollment Rate of Preschool Education:Based on the survey and consideration of the gross enrollment rate in the three-year action plan of three phase preschool education of 31 provinces in China

学前三年毛入园率是衡量国家或地区学前教育公共服务质量的重要指标,影响着家庭的生育意愿和全面二孩政策的推行水平。本文使用中国统计年鉴和全国各省份第二期三年行动计划收官年学前三年毛入园率的相关数据进行量化研究发现,我国不同地区学前三年毛入园率与经济发展水平、城镇人口比重呈高度正相关,与每百万人口幼儿园园所数呈中度正相关。值得关注的是,普惠性幼儿园的合理布局对提高毛入园率至关重要。据此提出三方面政策建议,以确保第三期行动计划学前三年毛入园率实现高质量达标:一是在中西部地区建立省级统筹的学前教育财政投入长效机制,提高中央财政向贫困落后地区转移支付资金的使用效率;二是各省份要在考虑适龄儿童增速变化的基础上动态调控普惠性幼儿园的增量资源,着力优化普惠性幼儿园在城市和乡村的空间布局;三是警惕进入学前三年毛入园率的"增长陷阱",切实解决"无证园"问题。

The three-year gross enrollment rate of preschool education is an important indicator to measure the public service quality of preschool education in a country or a region,which affects the families’fertility intentions and the implementation levels of the comprehensive two-child policy.Based on the data from China Statistical Yearbook and the second three-year action plan of all provinces in China,this paper finds that the gross enrollment rate of preschool education in different regions of China is highly positively correlated with the level of economic development and the proportion of urban population,and moderately positively correlated with the number of kindergartens per million population.It is worth noting that the optimized layout of generalized kindergartens is very important to improve the rate of gross enrollment.Therefore,three policy suggestions are put forward to ensure that the gross enrollment rate in the first three years of the third phase of the action plan are high-quality and up to standard:(1)Establish a long-term mechanism of provincial overall preschool education financial investment in the central and western regions,and improve the efficiency of the central government’s transfer of payment funds to the poor and backward regions;(2)Based on the consideration of the changes in the growth rate of preschool age children,each province should dynamically control the incremental resources of generalized kindergartens to optimize the spatial layout of inclusive kindergartens which are in urban and rural areas;(3)Being alert to the"growth trap"of the gross enrollment rate in the first three years of school and effectively solve the problem of"unlicensed kindergartens".