方言距离与城市流动人口犯罪的同群效应 基于广州、深圳、东莞三市的实证分析

Dialect Distance and Peer Effect of Crime among Urban Migrants:An Empirical Analysis Based on Guangzhou,Shenzhen,and Dongguan

在快速城市化过程中,由人口流动带来的区域文化碰撞在推动经济增长的同时,也深刻影响着社会融合。基于中国裁判文书网、《汉语方言大词典》、2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查的数据,本文以广州、深圳、东莞三大人口超千万的人口净流入城市为例进行实证分析,以方言距离为文化差异的代理变量,研究其如何影响城市流动人口的同乡团伙犯罪行为。研究表明,方言距离与流动人口同乡团伙犯罪显著正相关,同群效应是文化差异增加流动人口同乡团伙犯罪率的主要途径之一。本文从方言距离视角解读城市化过程中文化隔阂对城市社会和谐稳定的影响,丰富了文化影响移民犯罪及治理的理论探索,对推进以人为本的新型城镇化具有一定借鉴意义。

In the process of rapid urbanization,the unprecedented population movement brings about regional cultural collision,driving economic growth while profoundly affecting social harmony.Based on the public data of the China Judgments Online,the Dictionary of Chinese Dialects,and the 2017 China Migrants Dynamics Survey,this paper takes Guangzhou,Shenzhen,and Dongguan,three cities with a net inflow of over 10 million people,as examples for empirical analysis.By choosing dialect distance as a proxy variable of cultural differences,we investigate how it affects the hometown gang criminal behavior of the urban migrant population.The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between dialect distance and hometown gang crime among the migrant population.For each additional unit of dialect distance,the likelihood of migrants choosing hometown fellows as accomplices in crime increases by 8.3%.Mechanism analysis shows that the peer effect formed by dialect distance is a main factor for the increase of gang crime among migrants.Under the same conditions,the greater the migration distance,the greater the cultural gap between the migrants and the local population.Specific to social networks,it is reflected that migrants tend to trust members of the hometown group rather than the locals,which leads relatively closed clusters of community,enforcing the peer effect and increasing the possibility of participating in gang crimes.From the perspective of dialect distance,this study quantifies the impact of cultural conflicts on the harmony and stability of urban society in the process of urbanization,enriches the theoretical exploration of culture influences on migrant crime and its governance,and has certain implications for promoting a new type of people-oriented urbanization.