区域史视野下物候异常与气候变化的关系——以晋东南区域自然灾害为例

The Relationship between Phenological Anomalies and Climate Changes from the Perspective of Regional History——Case Study of Regional Natural Disasters in Southeastern Shanxi

古代史官记录天文、物候乃至草木虫鱼等自然界反常现象,作为王朝兴衰、人事休咎之征验,称为"灾异"和"祥瑞",并视之为自然灾害。整体来看,晋东南自然灾害与物候异常长时段的波动曲线是趋于一致的,而这个曲线也在某种程度上反映了中国历史气候的变迁。细节上的不同主要体现在"灾异"和"祥瑞"对气候变化的反应。这说明,气候变化对于自然灾害及物候变化存在影响,反过来,也可以通过研究自然灾害与物候异常来了解历史气候的变化。

The ancient historiographers recorded astronomical and phenological anomalies,and other abnormal phenomena in nature including those happening to plants,trees,insects and fish,which were deemed as"disastrous"and"propitious"omens to foretell and verify the rise and fall of dynasties and the weal and woe of human affairs,and regarded as"revelation of nature."On the whole,the long-term fluctuation curves of natural disasters and phenological anomalies in Southeast Shanxi tend to be consistent and these curves also reflect the climate changes of China in history to some extent.The differences in details are mainly reflected in the responses of"disastrous"and"propitious"omens to climate changes.This indicates that climate changes have an impact on natural disasters and phenological changes.In turn,we can learn about climate changes in history by studying natural disasters and phenological anomalies.