高混凝土坝抗震安全风险评估框架

Framework for seismic safety risk assessment of high concrete dams

我国水能资源丰富的西南地区属于强震多发区,因此高坝的抗震安全性受到广泛关注。本文建议了高混凝土坝抗震安全风险评估的框架,由坝址地震危险性、大坝地震易损性、地震破坏损失和抗震安全风险等级等四部分组成。首先,将高坝地震破坏划分为基本完好、轻微-中等破坏、严重破坏和溃坝四个等级。然后,针对每个破坏等级分析了相对应的生命损失、社会环境影响和经济损失评估方法。最后,采用国际上广泛应用的F-N曲线和ALARP准则,基于高混凝土坝地震破坏引起的各项损失风险水平的不同组合,其抗震安全风险可以划分为低、中等、高、极高四个等级。

Seismic safety is a challenging issue for high dams in Southwest China. This paper presents a new framework for seismic safety risk assessment of high concrete dams, including four parts of potential life loss, property damage, social impacts, and environment damage. First, four seismic dam damage levels-intact, slight-moderate damage, severe damage, and dam failure-are suggested;then, for each level, the loss of life, economic loss, and social impact, and environmental impact are analyzed. Finally, F-N curves and the ALARP approach are used to assess the seismic risk of dams. Generally, the overall risk of high concrete dams, by different combinations of potential seismic losses, can be divided into four levels: low risk, moderate risk, high risk, and extremely high risk.