圆形分布法分析罪犯违规时间规律的再研究——基于福建省三所监狱2018—2022年的数据

A Re-study on the Analysis of the Temporal Regime of Criminal Violations by Circular Distribution Method——Based on the Data from Three Prisons in Fujian Province from 2018 to 2022 as an Example

推进监狱治理能力现代化,需不断加强狱情收集、分析、研判工作。为提高防控狱内罪犯严重违规的预见性,收集福建省三所监狱四年罪犯严重违规数据,通过圆形分布法分析其发生的时间规律,为监管安全、警力部署提供合理、可靠的建议。研究发现,罪犯严重违规发生时间没有明显的季节性,发生月份呈现均匀分布,一天有三个严重违规高发时间段:07:00—09:00、11:00—12:00、18:00—20:00。严重违规罪犯主要集中在余刑短、有前科罪犯以及累惯犯中。

To promote the modernization of prison governance capabilities,it is necessary to continuously strengthen the collection,analysis and evaluation of prison information.In order to improve the predictability of prevention and control of serious violations by prisoners in prison,data of serious violations by prisoners in three prisons in Fujian province were collected for four years,and the temporal regime of occurrence was analyzed by circular distribution method,so as to provide reasonable and reliable suggestions for supervision and security and police force deployment.The study found that there was no obvious seasonal occurrence time of serious violations,and the occurrence month showed a uniform distribution,and there were three high occurrence time periods of serious violations:7:00-9:00,11:00-12:00,and 18:00-20:00.Serious offenders are mainly concentrated in short sentences,ex-offenders and recidivists.