基于两种机器学习算法的双相情感障碍患者自杀行为影响因素模型比较研究

A comparison study of suicidal behavior predictive models of bipolar disorder patients based on two machine learning algorithms

目的探索两种算法构建住院双相情感障碍患者自杀行为影响因素模型的特点,比较其分类能力,为住院双相情感障碍患者自杀行为的预防控制提供依据。方法利用2010年1月至2017年12月某精神专科医院住院双相情感障碍患者的数据,通过χ^(2)检验初步筛选自杀行为影响因素,采用Adaboost、二分类Logistic回归两种算法构建自杀行为影响因素模型,再用查全率、查准率和F1值比较不同模型特点。结果研究共纳入住院双相情感障碍患者7782例,有自杀行为的患者1661例,自杀行为率为21%。与Logistic回归模型相比,Adaboost模型分类能力较强且稳定。自杀行为影响因素中,诊断分型和既往自杀史在两模型中均占据重要地位。结论两种算法构建的双相情感障碍患者自杀行为影响因素模型,总体分类能力差别较小,需进一步挖掘潜在变量以提升模型分类能力。诊断分型为当前抑郁发作或混合发作、有既往自杀史的双相情感障碍患者是自杀行为的高危人群,应针对该特征加强自杀行为的预防工作。

Objective To explore the characteristics of two machine learning algorithms in the construction of suicidal behavior predictive models for bipolar disorder inpatients,and to compare their performance so as to provide a basis for the prevention and control of suicidal behavior of inpatients with bipolar disorder.Methods Clinical data of bipolar disorder inpatients treated during Jan.2010 and Dec.2017 were retrospectively analyzed.After the influencing factors of suicidal behavior were screened with Chi-square test analysis,Adaboost and binary Logistic regression were used to construct two suicidal behavior classification models.The characteristics of the two models were compared with recall ratio,precision ratio and F1 value.Results A total of 7,782 bipolar disorder inpatients were enrolled,among whom 1,661 had suicidal ideation or attempted suicide and the rate of suicidal behavior was 21%.Between the two models,Adaboost performed better.Diagnosis subtype and past suicide history were the two most important risk factors in both models.Conclusion There are only slight differences between the two models based on different machine learning algorithms,both having a low average performance.More factors are needed to improve the model performance.Current depression episode or mixed state and past suicide history are the most predictive traits for suicidal behavior in bipolar disorder inpatients.Preventive measures should be taken to address suicidal behavior risks accordingly.