贸易政策不确定性冲击的贸易偏向效应研究

The Trade Bias Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty Impact

近年来,贸易政策不确定性大幅上升,分析贸易政策不确定性(Trade Policy Uncertainty,TPU)对国际贸易结构的影响至关重要。文章利用双边关税数据和反倾销调查数据构建适用于服务贸易的贸易政策不确定性指数,并在此基础上分析贸易政策不确定性对国际贸易结构的影响。实证结果显示,贸易政策不确定性改变了国际贸易结构,即贸易政策不确定性虽抑制了货物贸易,却显著促进了服务业出口。分行业研究表明,贸易政策不确定性对服务业出口的影响不存在行业异质性,对生产性服务贸易、消费性服务贸易和公共服务贸易都有正向促进作用。服务业出口随空间的扩张而下降,随时差的增加而提高。贸易政策不确定性通过生产率、制度和创新三条渠道影响服务业出口。当贸易政策不确定性升高时,生产率的提升和市场化改革会有效促进服务业出口;当贸易政策不确定性下降时,创新能力的提升会促进服务业出口。文章揭示了贸易政策不确定性的贸易偏向效应,为中国应对贸易政策不确定性上升和发展服务贸易提供了新思路。

In recent years,trade policy uncertainty has increased significantly.It is worth paying attention to understand the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the structure of international trade.Based on the bilateral tariff data and anti-dumping investigation data from1995 to 2016,this paper constructs an index of trade policy uncertainty applicable to trade in services based on the research results of Handley&Limao(2017)and Azzimont(2019),and analyzes the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the structure of international trade.The empirical results show that:First,trade policy uncertainty changes the structure of international trade.Although trade policy uncertainty reduces trade in goods,it significantly promotes trade in services.A 10%rise in TPU leads to a 0.473%increase in service exports.This means that the impact of trade policy uncertainty significantly changes the structure of international trade,and produces a trade bias effect.Second,the sector-specific study shows that TPU has no industry heterogeneity in its impact on service exports,and has a positive effect on productive service trade,consumer service trade and public service trade.Third,service exports decrease with the expansion of space and increase with the increase of time difference.The partial regression coefficient of the former is-0.066%,and the partial regression coefficient of the latter is 0.02%.The time difference provides arbitrage space for trade in services,and countries can carry out service outsourcing with countries with large time difference to reduce the cost of trade in services.Fourth,TPU affects service exports through productivity,institution and innovation.When trade policy uncertainty increases,productivity improvement and market-oriented reform will effectively promote service exports.When trade policy uncertainty is reduced,increased innovation will boost service exports.This paper reveals the trade bias effect of trade policy uncertainty,and provides a new idea for China to cope with the rise of TPU and develop trade in services.With the outbreak of COVID-19,uncertainties in global trade policy have further increased.We should adapt to the international macro environment and shift the focus of trade,and not be limited to the development of trade in goods.We should shape new dynamic comparative advantages,strive to change the structure of export trade,vigorously develop trade in services,gradually reverse China’s trade deficit in services,and realize the dynamic optimization of trade structure.We should focus on the development sequence,find the optimal path for the growth of trade in services,and give priority to trade in productive services such as transport services,communications,computer and information services,intellectual property rights royalties,and financial services.