养老保险全国统筹的收入再分配效应研究

Research on the Income Redistribution Effect of the National Pooling of Old Age Insurance in China

本文首先利用1998年到2015年的分省数据研究发现:在地区老龄化水平差异很大的条件下,养老保险的分散统筹管理模式会导致地区间的经济发展和收入增长的两极分化。其次重点研究了养老保险全国统筹对地区收入差异和全国收入分配的影响,定量的研究表明:如果从2000年开始实行完全程度的全国统筹,则到2019年全国的收入差异将边际缩小4.5%。最后对从2018年开始实行的中央调剂金制度的效果进行分析,发现中央调剂金制度难以自然过渡并实现全国统筹的充分效果,因此建议应尽早实现全国“统收统支”的养老保险全国统筹,强化养老保险缴费的收入再分配功能,进而更有效地扎实推动共同富裕。

Based on provincial data from 1998 to 2015,this paper finds that under the condition of huge regional disparity in population aging,the decentralized management of old age insurance will lead to the polarization of economic development and income growth among regions.This paper also finds that provided that the national pooling was fully implemented from 2000,the income gap in China would be narrowed by 4.5%by 2019.Finally,this paper suggests that the national pooling of old age insurance should be realized without further delay,so as to promote the rapid development of common prosperity.