新冠肺炎疫情对中国出生人口变动的影响

The Influence of COVID-19 on Birth Numbers in China

基于国家互联互通出生人口监测数据的分析结果显示,中国近年来出生人口下降主要由30岁以下人群生育数量减少、一孩出生数量逐年下降及二孩增长趋缓共同驱动。新冠肺炎疫情在中国近年来出生数量持续走低的背景下,进一步压低中国的生育水平,加速了中国出生人口数量下行。

Based on the analysis of national birth monitoring data,this paper suggests that declining number of births in recent years in China is driven jointly by the reduction of births among women aged below 30,the decrease of first births and the waning growth of the second births.The outbreak of COVID-19 further drastically depressed the number of births among women aged below 30 and reduced the number of first births in the fourth quarter of 2020,resulting in an accelerated decline in the number of births in 2020.