人口预期寿命延长、养老金保障风险与政策回应

Increasing Life Expectancy,Pension Risks,and Policy Responses

保障老年人口退休期基本生活需求是养老保险制度核心功能,也是"后疫情时期"提振消费的重要举措。预期寿命延长趋势下,退休期养老金保障风险以及在养老保险生命周期精算平衡约束下的政策回应是"后疫情时期"提高民生福利和提振消费面临的关键问题。研究发现,预期寿命延长会导致养老金社会平均工资替代率下降程度加大,增加退休后期养老金保障风险;提高高龄退休人口养老金调整指数是现实政策解决保障风险的着力点,其实质是提高调整水平,但会加剧养老保险生命周期精算失衡风险;提高最低缴费年限标准难以破解提高保障水平和保持精算平衡的"两难"困境,实施延迟退休年龄政策以及个人账户计发系数、预期寿命与养老金调整指数联动可以实现提高保障水平和保持精算平衡的帕累托改进。

With the trend of increasingly longer life expectancy,the pension risks rise.Under the constraint of actuarial equilibrium in the life cycle of pension insurance,policy designs largely affect people’s livelihood and consumption in the post-epidemic period.The results show that:longer life expectancy will exacerbate decline of the replacement rate of average social wage and increase the risk of pension security in the last years of life.Increasing the pension adjustment index of older retirees is one of the policy options to solve the problem.However,raising the adjustment level will raise the actuarial imbalance risk over the life cycle.It is difficult to solve the dilemma between raising the pension payment and maintaining the actuarial balance by raising the minimum number of years for contributions.Delaying retirement as well as linking the calculation and payment coefficient of individual account,life expectancy,and adjustment index can realize the Pareto improvement of raising the level of security and maintaining the actuarial balance.